The real estate agents are beating the home sales recovery drum this morning, they are aided by a survey, conducted by a wire service of 29 unnamed economists, all of whom would likely advise you to wait for the rescue ships to reach the Titanic as the water lapped over your ankles.
Their great news is that sales of existing U.S. homes likely, yes likely, rose for a second consecutive month in October, reaching their highest since July 2007.
The survey of 29 economists predicted sales of previously owned homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.70 million, the fastest pace since 5.73 million units were sold in July 2007 and up from 5.57 million units in September.
The forecast solicited from the economists ranged from as low as a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, considerably below the last forecast, to as high as 6.00 million units. Average the guesses together and you get a pretty rosy and totally incorrect number.
I predict this “good news” will be followed within days of “bad news” in the housing market.